Jerry Brown, photo courtesy Thomas Hawke via flickr.
by Michael Joy, 2L
Although a year away, candidates and voters are preparing for the next California gubernatorial election. The Democratic primary could bring a lot of media attention and could be politically costly for the winner. The Republican primary is shaping up to be just as strenuous, except it may prove to be even more politically and financially costly than the Democratic primary.
The only Democratic candidate at the moment is current California Attorney General Jerry Brown, who is expected to declare his candidacy soon. Although Brown has not declared his candidacy yet, he is ahead in all the polls, both against Democrats and Republicans. Brown brings a great deal of political experience to his campaign, having been governor from 1975-1983, a former Mayor of Oakland, and currently serving at California Attorney General. Brown’s reputation as an unconventional politician has won him supporters, but has also strengthened criticism against him.
The Democratic primary was going to be challenging for Brown, but his opponent, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, recently dropped out. Unless a new opponent mounts a campaign, it is likely that Brown will coast to the Democratic nomination. This heavily favors Brown because he will not have to spend much money in the primary and he will not be beaten up by his own party opponents. Nasty primary tactics between Steve Westly and Phil Angelides in the primary severely weakened Angelides in the last general election.
Republicans are offering three candidates for governor. Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, former Congressman Tom Campbell, and current California Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner are all vying for the Republican nomination. The three Republican candidates will be campaigning against the backdrop of an intensely unpopular Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. The Schwarzenegger problem might be a non-issue because the Republican base widely perceives the current governor to be a moderate rather than a true Republican.
Meg Whitman brings very strong business credentials, immense personal wealth, and popularity among Republicans to the race. She will be running during a still weak California economy, and her successful record as CEO of eBay will be a very strong point for her. Alternatively, Whitman brings no political experience to the race and has faced minor criticism for her lack of voting participation.
The second candidate for the Republicans, Tom Campbell, is competing with Whitman in early polling. Campbell brings experience as a former Congressman and experience representing the people of California. Although Campbell brings voter recognition, he is going to have to fight against Whitman and Poizner’s spending abilities in order to be competitive in the primary.
The third Republican candidate, Steve Poizner, brings his success as a business figure and current position in California politics to the race. Poizner also brings wealth to the campaign, which will allow him to go head-to-head against Whitman. He will have to overcome his low early polling numbers and will have to introduce himself to voters in order to be competitive.
The Republican primary, with three leading candidates, will be a difficult race. Two of the candidates, Whitman and Campbell, are polling closely. If the race heats up, it may become an endurance contest, which could be financially and politically expensive for the winner. Whitman holds the financial advantage compared to Campbell, but will have to fight against his experience to be successful.
Jerry Brown leads the polls against all current and potential candidates, Democratic and Republican. Brown will be campaigning in a state that is highly disapproving of the Democratic controlled state legislature, but just as disapproving of the Republican governor. If Brown runs unopposed in the Democratic primary, he will hold a large advantage in the general election because he can start his campaign for governor early, focusing on his Republican opponents. To keep the general election close, Republicans need to choose their candidate quickly, conserving financial and political resources.
