I was very excited for Easter Sunday this year. Yes, I love Easter egg hunts just as much as the next 25-year-old kid. But, I was just itching for baseball season to start. Listen quietly and just off the horizon you can hear the pop of a baseball off a wooden bat and the snap of a ball into a stiff leather glove. Sunday, April 4 was the beginning of the 2010 baseball season, and since it is never too early to debate lineups or discuss starting rotations, I give you, my loyal readers, my take on the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers.

The 2009 season held visions of déjà vu for Dodger fans. Again, the Dodgers had high expectations. Again, the Dodgers won the National League West. Again, the Dodgers swept their opponent in the National League Division Series. Again, the Dodgers seemed destined to achieve great things. But, again Jonathon Broxton couldn’t get Matt Stairs out, and again the Dodgers lost to the Phillies four games to one in the National League Championship Series.

In 2010, the Dodgers will practically field the same team. However, this year Matt Stairs is now a San Diego Padre! But, for the Dodgers to advance further in the playoffs this season, they will have to do it just like they did last year, with a patient and deep offense, solid starting pitching, and a lights-out bullpen.

Offensively, the Dodgers will have the same lineup as they did last year. Fortunately, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are a year older, and fans hope they will build on last year’s success. Conversely, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, and Manny Ramirez are another year older, and fans hope they can delay their entrance into the twilight of their stellar careers.

The Dodgers lineup will likely feature Furcal leading off, and then some combination of Kemp, Ethier, and Ramirez. Following them will be James Loney, Blake, Russell Martin and whoever plays second base. Yes, sorry Vin Scully, your favorite “O-Dawg” (Orlando Hudson) won’t be in Dodger Blue this year. Assuming Ronnie Belliard weighs in at 209 pounds during spring training (future contracts exam hypo?), his contract becomes guaranteed, and he will share playing time with youngster Blake Dewitt at second base. The only minor changes from 2009 will be Dewitt and Belliard platooning at second base; also, look for Ramirez, Furcal, and Blake to be treated like they are made out of tissue paper — lots of days off – to rest them for the pennant race and playoffs.

In the offseason, the Dodgers signed Reed Johnson. Johnson is known for his ability to crush left-handed pitching, his defensive ability in the outfield, and his studly goatee. Look for Johnson to play frequently when Ramirez sits and occasionally for Ethier when the Dodgers face a tough left-handed pitcher. In the offseason the Dodgers also signed utility player Jamey Carroll. Carroll is known for his pleasant personality (awarded the “Good Guy Award” the last two years while in Cleveland), his ability to play every infield position, and his ability to get on base. When Carroll isn’t baking cookies for road trips, look for him to get a few starts in place of Furcal and Blake.

Pitching-wise, the Dodgers will miss Randy Wolf and his 200 innings and 3.23 ERA. Otherwise, the guys who received the majority of the starts last year, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda and playoff hero Vicente Padilla, are coming back to the take the hill in 2010. The fifth starter’s spot will likely look like a revolving door, with many arms taking a turn for the team.

The Dodgers desperately need Billingsley and Kershaw to put on their “man pants” and lead this staff. Kuroda has shown an ability to pitch well but is frequently injured. Padilla’s track record reminds me of what the women looked like at my undergrad Cornell; pretty average but at times, and in the right light, can have exceptional performances.

Like 2009, when the Dodgers had the lowest bullpen ERA in all of baseball, the bullpen should again be a real asset for the Dodgers in 2010. Every key reliever is returning, meaning Joe Torre needs only 5 to 6 innings from his starting pitcher. After that Torre can use Ramon Troncoso, Ronald Belisario, Hung-Chih Kuo, and George Sherrill to bridge the gap to the big horse, Jonathan Broxton.

It is a well known fact that every rose has its thorn. While the 2010 Dodgers are far from perfect, they are still a very talented and experienced team. In addition, none of their divisional opponents made significant off-season moves which could make them the favorite. Therefore, the Dodgers start the season as the early favorites to win the National League West. However, again the Dodgers will see a lot of Matt Stairs. “Play Ball!”

One bright spot, in what has been a relatively gloomy offseason for your Los Angeles Dodgers, is that GM Ned Colletti was able to agree to contractual terms with all nine arbitration-eligible players: Matt Kemp, Jonathon Broxton, Andre Ethier, George Sherrill, Hung-Chih Kuo, James Loney, Jason Repko, Chad Billingsley, and Russell Martin.

Per Major League Baseball’s Collective Bargaining Agreement with Major League Baseball Players’ Association, all players with between three and six years of service time can have their salary determined through the arbitration process if they fail to come to terms with their respective teams. The arbitration process is in place to reward older players by ensuring their salaries are comparable to similar players with analogous service time and statistics. Therefore, after their third year in the league, players are no longer required to accept whatever salary their team deems is adequate. Instead, they get a chance to argue in front of an independent arbitrator that they are worth $X because Joe Shmoe, with similar statistics and service time, received or was rewarded $Y by Team Z at this stage in his career.

Sounds great doesn’t it? Not so fast. Since players have been allowed to use the arbitration process to pursue higher salaries, the teams have won the majority of the time. This is because the player’s team is allowed to argue the player’s flaws and portray an image that he is actually worth less than he thinks because he is more comparable to Joe Blow (above Joe Smoe’s less talented and therefore less financially rewarded cousin).

The truth of the matter is that neither side really wants to go to arbitration. The team does not want to spend the resources coming up with statistical arguments that demean its employee, the player who is actually present during the hearing. Remember, the team still controls the player for at least another year and, therefore, risks the possibility of upsetting him and then having to work with the player for the next seven months at a minimum. Guys, imagine that if for Valentine’s Day you told your girlfriend you gave her only one rose instead of the 12 she wanted because you felt she wasn’t as good as your buddy’s girlfriend who he gave 12 roses to the year before. Then to eloquently prove your point, you compare and contrast the girls with charts and graphs. Now imagine being forced to coexist with your girlfriend for the next seven months, or even three years! Yes, now you get it!

Players want to avoid arbitration because baseball arbitration is unique in that it is a zero-sum scenario. This means that the arbitrator is forced to pick either the player’s salary number or the team’s. Therefore, after a hearing, the player is either earning the salary he proposed or is living off of whatever salary the team proposed. Therefore, knowing that history is not on their side, players like to negotiate and settle somewhere in the middle of the proposals. Players are then content knowing they had some input in their salary and, while they are earning less than they desire, they are earning more than if they would have lost their hearings.

While the fact the Dodgers were able to avoid arbitration hearings with all nine of their eligible players is a minor headline, it is significant in a few ways. One, it determined the overall shape of the team’s payroll earlier than waiting for the hearings in February. Therefore, the Dodgers were able to resign Ronnie Belliard and Vicente Padilla in the last week because they knew how much of the 2010 budget remained. Two, the Dodgers signed Kemp, Ethier, and Broxton for two years. While this gives the players job security, it also makes sure the Dodgers avoid this process next year and allows them to know how much salary to allocate to these core players in 2011. Finally, every Dodger can report to Spring Training in a few weeks in a pleasant mood and begin the journey to a World Series Championship!

Written by Matthew McConnell, 3L Writer/Editor

Ben Sheets has a good chance if he takes an incentive-laden deal. Photo courtesy of Matthew Schnell.

The Dodgers are in a very perplexing position this offseason. They have a nucleus of talented young players and very few holes to fix. Going into next year, the Dodgers need to add a couple of starting pitchers, a second baseman, and a couple of bench players. However, general manager Ned Colletti’s job is going to be much more difficult. Anybody who has been following TMZ knows that the owners of the Dodgers, Frank and Jamie McCourt, are experiencing a messy public divorce. This column has always been devoted to hard-hitting statistical economic analysis and, in true fashion, will not divert into the kind of substance that readers used to be able to find in this paper’s former Variety section. However, rumor has it Colletti has been told to make only cash neutral transactions until the divorce is finalized. Therefore, his hands are tied, and barring a financial bailout from Pres, Barack Obama, Colletti will not be able to add salary to next year’s roster. However, lucky for him, I have contributed my two cent towards how to fix the starting rotation.

Have: Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda

Possible Internal Options: James McDonald, Scott Elbert, and Ramon Troncoso
Interesting Realistic External Options: Edwin Jackson, Randy Wolf, Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, Vicente Padilla, Jon Garland, Doug Davis, Justin Duchscherer,
The Dodgers’ strength last year was their pitching staff. However, it was the failure of the Dodgers starting pitching to pitch deep into games that doomed their World Series chance. The Dodgers have an ace in the making in Clayton Kershaw, a very talented Chad Billingsley and, when healthy, a very effective Hiroki Kuroda. Therefore, Colletti does not need to turn water into wine here. He just needs to add some capable arms that can keep the Dodgers in games, give them a chance to win, and get the bullpen the ball in the later innings.
If the rumors are true, and the Tigers are willing to trade Edwin Jackson for George Sherrill, Colletti should have made this trade yesterday. Jackson, a former Dodger prospect, is only 26 and had a breakout year last year in the tougher American League. The Tigers reportedly want Sherrill to be their closer next year. I like Sherrill, but if you can acquire a starting pitcher who will give you 200 above average innings for a relief pitcher who will only you around 70 of the same quality, you pull the trigger and don’t think twice. The cherry on the cake is that Jackson and Sherrill will earn the same salary in 2010.

Ben Sheets is interesting. He missed all of 2009 due to injury but was outstanding in 2008. If he is willing to take an incentive-laden deal, I would take a flyer on him. Erik Bedard and Rich Harden can be electric, but they are also rarely healthy. Randy Wolf had a career year but is approaching his mid-30s and is supposedly looking for a 3 year deal. If Wolf is willing to discuss reasonable money for two years, Colletti should listen to him because he eats up innings and is a grinder. In the postseason, it seemed like Vicente Padilla was sent from a divine hand to save the Dodgers’ season. However, statistics show he is just an average pitcher (4.33 career ERA), and I am not too excited about him. Doug Davis is intriguing. He is an above-average left hander and eats up innings. However, while watching him pitch, I just wonder how he gets it done with his repertoire of slow junk. Justin Duchscherer was outstanding in 2008 (2.54 ERA in the American League) but like others was hurt all of 2009. Jon Garland is capable of pitching 7 to 8 innings every start, but he will also give up close to 4 runs.

Result: Dodgers need at least one of McDonald, Elbert, or Troncoso to develop into a starter from within the organization. Look for Elbert to stay in the bullpen, especially if Sherrill is traded. If Sherrill is traded, hopefully Jackson is back in Dodger Blue. Colletti needs to do his homework and monitor the recoveries of Bedard, Sheets, and Duchscherer. If promising, he should entice one or two of them to pitch in Dodger Blue. Then sign an innings eater like Davis, Padilla, or Garland.

While at any time during the season the Dodgers will have four to five starters in the rotation, fans need to remember it often takes seven or eight arms to start 162 games. Case and point, in 2009, 11 different pitchers started a game for the Dodgers. Therefore, when going into the season, it is pivotal to have a rotation in place and know the contingency plan . . . and the contingency plan to that contingency plan and so on.

Written by Matthew McConnell.

Matt Kemp, Courtesy of dizbuster319 via Flickr

By Matthew McConnell

So the 2009 Dodgers’ season did not have a happy ending. That means it’s back to the drawing board as the front office start starts laying the ground work for next season. However, the Dodgers are in a unique position because they have very few holes to fill. The Dodgers have a young nucleus of talented players in which GM Ned Colletti should build around by adding a couple of starting pitchers and a second baseman. These are the top five guys from 2009 who will play pivotal roles in the 2010 Dodgers’ quest for a World Series.

1. Andre Ethier

Before the season began, manager Joe Torre compared Ethier to his former All-Star Paul O’Neil. For my non-baseball savy readers, O’Neil was Torre’s right fielder during the Yankees’ Championships in ’96 and ‘98-2000. Like Ethier, he was left-handed, could hit, and was never afraid to show frustration (see record for most water coolers thrown onto field.) While Ethier has always carried himself like O’Neil, most Dodger fans figured we would have to wait a few years until he produced like him. However, in 2009 Ethier did his best O’Neil impression and led the Dodgers in homeruns (31) and runs batted in (106) while also serving up six electrifying walk-off hits. Ethier hasn’t even turned 28 yet and is entering the prime of what has the potential to be a stellar career. Just to compare, O’Neil never hit 30 homeruns in a season and didn’t drive in 100 or more runs until he was 34.

2. Clayton Kershaw

When most of us were 21, we were clowning around our college campus celebrating the fact we could finally drink legally. What was Clayton Kershaw doing when he was 21? Oh nothing special. I mean he only led ALL National League pitchers in opponents batting average against (.200), had the fifth lowest earned-run average (2.78), the fifth highest strikeouts per 9 innings pitched (9.74), and second lowest homeruns per 9 innings pitched (.37). Case in point, Kershaw went toe-to-toe with Cardinal’s ace Adam Wainright in game 2 of the NLCS and only allowed 1 run over his first 6 innings pitched. Days later in game 1 of the NLDCS, he held the Phillies to zero runs through the first 4 innings. Last year Kershaw was simply one of the best pitchers in the National League, despite the fact he was the third-youngest player in the league! Once Kershaw conquers his control problems (third in walks allowed and sixth in wild pitches) and pitches into the seventh inning of games, he will be a true “ace.”

3. Matt Kemp

Kemp’s nickname is appropriately “The Bison.” No, not because he went to SW, silly. It is because he is big, fast, and strong. In 2009, Kemp slugged 26 homeruns and drove in 101 runs while playing stellar defense in centerfield. Centerfielders are supposed to be scrawny guys who steal bases. While the Bison is not scrawny, he was third in the National League in stolen bases (34). Once Kemp develops better plate discipline, he will become one of the elite players in the game and form a dynamic duo with Ethier in the outfield. Also, Kemp is only 25 and still entering the prime of his career.

4. Jonathon Broxton

Big Jon (6-feet-4-inches and 290 pounds) is an intimidating closer. In 2009 he ranked sixth in the National League in saves and led all relief pitchers with 114 strikeouts. To cap off his remarkable season, he allowed less than 1 base runner per inning pitched. Because Broxton has blown two straight NLCS game 4s to the Phillies, some critics focus on Broxton’s failures as a closer. That isn’t fair, nor accurate, because more often than not Broxton is one of the premier closers in the game and strikes fear into the hearts of opposing hitters. If Broxton ever conquers his fear of Matt Stairs, or the Canadian slugger gets deported, Broxton has the potential to lead the Dodgers to the World Series. He is also only 25 and should only become more dominating.

5. Chad Billingsley

It was a tale of two seasons for Billingsley. At the All-Star break, he was the Dodgers’ “Ace” and arguably one of the top three pitchers in the National League (3.34 earned-run average and was selected to the All-Star team). However, Billingsley fell apart in the second-half of the season (5.20 earned run average) and wasn’t even given a chance to start in the postseason. Have no fear Dodger fans. In 2007, a left-handed pitcher on the Indians had a 5.38 earned-run average through his first 16 starts, was optioned down to the minor leagues, and eventually left off the Indians’ postseason roster. This lefty came back in 2008 and had an amazing season as he won the American League Cy-Young Award. That pitcher is the Phillies’ Cliff Lee, who pitched an absolute gem against the Dodgers in game 3 of the NLCS. Moral of the story is you do not give up on young talented pitchers too early. Billingsley is only 25, has a career earned-run average of 3.55 and throws hard with a good breaking ball.

By Matt McConnell

The beginning of law school season is among us. But, more importantly, with more than half of the baseball season over, the Dodgers have an 8-game lead in the National League West. That means our boys in blue should just coast into the playoffs, right? That way we can all just focus on school and not stress about our favorite baseball team, correct?

At the time of this writing, the website coolstandings.com projected the Dodgers likelihood of making the playoffs at 92 percent, by far the highest of any Major League Baseball team. Ask any law school veteran, and they can tell you how stressful law school can be; the long hours, moments of confusion, sprouting gray hair and more, etc. The last thing we need is to worry about the Dodgers during our already long nights in the library. Therefore, the baseball gods have done us all a favor this year, and no matter how well the Giants or Rockies play the rest of the way, it looks like the Dodgers will easily make the playoffs. As a direct consequence, I predict that SW students will have the highest test scores in the school’s history.

However, making the playoffs is only winning one battle. Every baseball fan knows that if you want to win the war, you win the World Series! Seeing that the Cardinals traded for Matt Holliday and the Phillies acquired Cliff Lee, it looks like the Dodgers will have serious competition for the National League Championship. In the American League, as always, the Yankees and Red Sox look like real contenders. Therefore, Dodger fans must prepare for an intense and stressful October as we juggle our scholastic duties with questioning every umpires’ call, gasping at each long fly ball, and second-guessing all of Joe Torre’s unsuccessful decisions. Dodger fans get excited for October because after baseball season, it turns into finals season.

While we were taking final exams and enjoying winter break, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti was attempting to improve the 2009 Dodgers roster. Let’s see how he did: Read the full story

While we were taking final exams and enjoying winter break, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti was attempting to improve the 2009 Dodgers roster. Let’s see how he did: Read the full story

The arrival of the holiday season marks the height of baseball’s free agency period. While consumers are endlessly searching for the best bargains and deals, major league baseball’s general managers are in the midst of complicated and intricate negotiations with baseball’s free agents. Read the full story

St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Rick Ankiel was quoted earlier this season: “You always hear baseball is a marathon, not a sprint.”  Remarkably, after this marathon-like 162-game season, the Dodgers found themselves in first place ahead of their National League West rivals. Seeing that last year the National League West was extremely competitive, with four of the five teams having winning records and the Colorado Rockies representing the National League in the World Series, it was widely believed that the National League West would be baseball’s toughest division this year.  However, it was as if all five teams forgot to stretch, hydrate, and load up on carbohydrates.  This allowed the Dodgers to suffer injuries, make unwise lineup decisions, and eventually catch a second wind to capture the division title.

Throughout 2008, the Dodgers experienced injuries to several key players, including second baseman Jeff Kent, closer Takashi Saito, and starting pitcher Brad Penny.  However, none were as critical as when All-Star shortstop Rafael Furcal strained his back in the beginning of May. At the time, Furcal was the Dodgers most valuable player as he led the team in on-base (.448 OBP) and slugging percentages (.597 SLG).  Granted, it was highly unlikely that Furcal would keep producing these superstar statistics, his unique skill combination of getting on base, hitting for power, and running at high speed was surely missed. Making matters worse, Furcal’s replacements were an offensive black hole in his absence.  Angel Berroa (.314 OBP, .335 SLG), Nomar Garciappara (.306 OBP, .419 SLG) and Chin-lung Hu (.231 OBP, .207 SLG) spent most of the season being automatic outs in the Dodgers lineup.  While Furcal’s injury was a serious setback (no pun intended), the Dodgers were able to stay with the pack and eventually win the division. Read the full story